Derby County v Nottingham Forest Betting: Forest to edge tight East Midlands derby

The first East Midlands derby of the season takes place on Sunday afternoon as Derby County and Nottingham Forest will both be targeting a victory that could kick-start their campaign.

These foes last met in a 2-2 draw at the City Ground back in March, when both managers were thrown in at the deep-end with their first games in charge, and since then, they have taken their respective teams in different directions.

Mark Warburton has turned Forest into a young, exciting, possession-based side, similar to the one he built at Brentford, with Gary Rowett using the same blueprint he applied at Birmingham, creating an experienced, powerful and streetwise outfit.

Gary Rowett Derby

The Rams are 77/100 (1.77) favourites with BetSafe to leapfrog their rivals with a third win in five home games, whilst a draw is 14/5 (3.80). However, the value could be with the visitors, who are as big as 18/5 (4.60) to take the local bragging rights.

The Garibaldi Reds’ games see on average 3.1 goals this season, so those who have them on side might also want to back a high-scoring encounter, and an away win with over 2.5 goals can be found at 123/20 (7.15), which implies a 14% chance, yet this year’s trends indicate a probability of 24% for that occurrence.

Derby Nottingham Forest graphic

Alternatively, a lower-risk punt would be to back the Forest win with 0:1 handicap at 27/25 (2.08), which would land if they win or the match is a draw. Odds against quotes for betting on two outcomes from a possible three represents good value, especially in a game between two evenly-matched teams that the Rams have won just three of in the last eight meetings between the sides

Neither team are in a particularly desirable run of form right now, with Derby having drawn three of their last four whilst losing the other, and Forest looking for a second win in a row after losing three consecutive matches prior their 2-1 success over Sheffield United before the international break.

For those less convinced by the away side’s defence, which has shipped 19 goals in 11, both teams to score at 3/4 (1.75) might appeal as those odds imply a probability of 57%, but the bet would have come off in 67% of games involving either side this term.

Nottingham Forest to win with 0:1 Handicap at 27/25 (2.08) for a 1pt stake with BetSafe

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